Market snapshotKalshi-impliedB200 $7.72 thin
AI COMPUTE
TRACKER

06Compute markets· record checked 2026-10-14

GPU compute futures & markets

Where compute risk trades. Exchange futures, perpetual contracts and event-contract ladders written on the price of GPU time, with each venue's status read from its dated, sourced events.

Market structure

How the compute market is forming

“Compute right now is where oil was before NYMEX — traded only via OTC deals … the industry will need a similar derivative market.”
Tarek Mansour, CEO, Kalshi · post on X,

  1. 01 · Through 2024

    OTC

    Multi-year cloud commitments and private neocloud deals. Terms are bespoke, prices opaque, and there is no common reference rate.

  2. 02 · 2024–25

    Indices

    Daily GPU-rental benchmarks from Silicon Data and Ornn give compute a printed spot reference.

  3. 03 · July 2026

    Forward curvesHere

    Kalshi event-contract ladders produce a market-implied monthly term structure — the curves tracked here.

  4. 04 · Not yet listed

    Futures

    Exchange-listed, cash-settled futures on GPU rental indices.

    CME Group: postponed (postponement notice, Sep 28, 2026); regulatory review pending

    ICE: announced (first contracts named, Sep 29, 2026); regulatory review pending

  5. 05 · Next

    Options

    Options and structured capacity finance would complete the risk-transfer stack, alongside perpetual futures.

    AX: Ornn H100 perpetual goes live (Apr 3, 2026)

Venue monitor

Where compute risk can trade

Record checked ·

Kalshi

live

Event-contract ladders on GPU rental prices for B200, H200, H100, A100 and RTX 5090 — the ladders this site’s forward curves are reconstructed from.

Market snapshot OCT 15 2026 · 17:19 UTC: 55 monthly-average events open across 5 chips; no chip anchors on a weekly ladder.

Instrument
Event contracts → implied curves
Benchmark
Ornn hourly index
Monthly ladders open
Press report
Report says Commerce had the curve product pulled; Commerce denies it ·
Kalshi compute markets

CME Group

postponedPending review

Silicon Data H100 and B200 rental-index futures filed on NYMEX.

Instrument
Cash-settled compute futures
Benchmark
Silicon Data H100 / B200 rental indices
Postponement notice
Regulatory
CFTC extends its review of the NYMEX H100/B200 futures ·
September 28 postponement notice

ICE

announcedPending review

GPU compute futures on Ornn’s OCPI and on NATIVX’s COIL index.

Instrument
USD cash-settled GPU futures
Benchmark
Ornn Compute Price Index
First contracts named
Announcement
GPU futures on NATIVX’s COIL index announced ·
ICE Futures U.S. notice

“Live” means listed contracts were available in the archived source record. “Scheduled”, “announced”, “postponed”, and “pending review” are not launch confirmations; each venue retains its dated source record.

Dated record

Market-structure timeline

Every venue status above derives from these events, each with its primary source — a press report is recorded with the denial it carries. The same entries, with their full summaries, feed the desk log and its RSS feed.

  1. · Scheduled · CFTC — Comment period on compute derivatives closes · status after: comment closed · CFTC letter to CME Group (comment period closing Oct 20, 2026)
  2. · Observed · Kalshi — No weekly ladder open; monthly ladders open · status after: live · This site’s archived Oct 11 session (anchor per chip)
  3. · Announcement · ICE — First OCPI futures named: H100 (HPR) and B200 (BKL) · status after: announced · ICE Futures U.S. notice
  4. · Postponement · CME Group — Postponement notice · status after: postponed · September 28 postponement notice
  5. · Regulatory · CME Group — CFTC extends its review of the NYMEX H100/B200 futures · status after: in review · CFTC letter to CME Group
  6. · Press report · Kalshi — Report says Commerce had the curve product pulled; Commerce denies it · status after: live · Semafor report
  7. · Regulatory · CFTC — Request for comment on listing compute derivatives · status after: comment open · CFTC Release 9286-26
  8. · Launch · Kalshi — Curves launched · status after: live · Tarek Mansour’s announcement on X
  9. · Announcement · ICE — GPU futures on NATIVX’s COIL index announced · status after: announced · ICE and NATIVX announcement
  10. · Announcement · ICE — GPU futures on Ornn’s index announced · status after: announced · ICE announcement
  11. · Launch · AX — Ornn H100 perpetual goes live · status after: live · Ornn’s announcement on X
  12. · Listing · Polymarket — H100 rental-price market opens · status after: live · Polymarket market page
  13. · Announcement · AX — Compute perpetuals announced · status after: announced · Architect press release
How the curves are derived

Background reading: Compute derivatives on AI Wiki. AI Wiki is run by the same team as AI Compute Tracker.